Chapter # 12 : International Business in the Future
Gone is the time when we could look in the rear mirror and guess how the future would look like.
How do you prepare/educate yourself for the future markets and where will they be?
The markets are changing. You have to keep up to date. Today it is lifelong learning. What you studied yesterday does not apply today and is for sure not applicable in the future.
Future jobs are not invented yet and more than half of the jobs of today are gone in 20 years. The companies of the future have not yet been incorporated and many of our traditional corporations will be gone by 2040.
If you are still in school, do not expect your teachers to teach you about the future. You have to study, analyze and use your crystal ball. The whole world is changing and you have to adapt.
How will the market and technology look like 10, 20 and 50 years from now? Are you ready for this change? Already today 50% of work activities can be automated. Automation will displace some workers, but because of the increased population in the emerging markets that will be compensated by more new jobs.
Their labour market will increase by1.5 billion people between 2010 and 2050. By 2050 the world population will be 8.9 billion. Of those, more than 5 billion will reside in Asia and 2 billion in Africa i.e. almost 80%. More than 30% of the total population residing in India and China. Most of those countries with a younger population while the industrial nations are hurt by an older population and retirees.
Where are your future customers? Of course, it is depending on what you would be selling. What we know is that the new fast-growing countries, the emerging markets will be our future markets. Not only will they dominate the world economy they will create the dominating part of our future millionaires. Almost 100% of GDP growth will come from those markets
Because the middle class is expanding so fast in these countries they may be your future consumers and purchasers of luxury items. India and China will be the dominant leader in GDP $ in Purchasing Power Parity. Both of them twice as large as USA by 2050.
GDP growth in the industrial nations will be minimal between 2010 and 2050, while some developing countries will grow by more than 6% a year. China will be the top trading nation in 2050 almost three times the amount of US trade.
In the future, we will produce food in fish farms, vegetables in vertical farms and even produce meat artificially, with the right vitamins and fat content. All in an environmentally friendly way.
With an increasing population an increased middle class, the energy consumption will increase. The emerging markets, mainly in Africa and Asia, will be responsible for 90% of this growth,
Tomorrow’s teachers/educators need to adapt to the new reality in teaching and prepare students for the new global markets. Traditional curriculum subjects taught and delivery of education will have to remain relevant.
Businesses are adapting to the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Future jobs will be more high tech and job-sharing and telecommuting more common.
Robots and automation are increasing not only in manufacturing but also in the medical field and farming (milking robots). In the future, your robots wake you up and have your breakfast ready and give you an update on your health.
Household robots are already tested in Europe (2015) to retrieve food from the store, collect trash and place it in a dumpster on the street. By 2035 they will become a more affordable resource for personal home care. Samsung is forecasting a robot in every home in Korea by 2020. If so they will need to be programmed to interact with humans as well as physically.
3D printing is already common in the industry It allows you to print products directly from a sketch or drawing. The 3D printing markets are expected to grow to $7 billion by 2025.
By 2030, there will be a need for more than 980 000 airline pilots, compared with 460 000 today. The cost to train a pilot average between $50,000-$100, 000
Digital advertising will dominate the market and our newspapers and magazines will be adapted/oriented to each customer.
The medical field will see a major change. By 2020 it will be common to analyze DNA and limit the future risk of diseases. By 2050, we may be able to slow down or reverse ageing, Already today with modern 3d bio-printing we can produce body parts, prosthetics with brain control etc.
The market for small analytics instruments attached or implanted in patients is already a fact today, allowing patients to stay home and be monitored 24 hours a day and feeding the patient, relatives and doctors every second with updated information and even calling 911 if the heart rhythm gets out of sync. The unit will alert even before a heart attack happens.
By 2050 one in five-person will be over the age of 60 and medical tourism is growing by 30% a year. Allowing patients, professional and fast service at a low cost.
The future is at your doorstep. If you have not started to prepare, then it is time to do so.
I hope this has given you some thoughts and ideas about why you have to be prepared.
Leif Holmvall, President
Export Pro Inc.
In our book “Export & Import – Winning in the Global Marketplace”
ISBN 978-0-9681148-1-0 those topics are covered in depth. You can also buy our book for less than $10 as an e-book visit e.g. https://www.amazon.com/dp/0968114814, where you can read part of the book.
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